(The following contents from Shanxi Securities "Policy Reviews of Coal Industry: Price Mechanism continues to take into account flexible amendments, and the original excerpts of the original text of coal enterprises’ profitable profitable and stable".) Description:
On November 6, 2023, the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Doing a Foreign Coal Medium and Long -term Contract Signing Performance Work in 2024" (hereinafter referred to as the "2024 Plan" or "Plan").The signing objects, contract requirements, price mechanisms, capacity configuration, schedule, performance supervision (punishment mechanism) of the medium and long -term contracts, etc.Comparison of schemes 24 years and 23 years:Guoabong Investment
The overall continuation of the 2023 plan, the start of the 2024 plan affirmed the "cockpit stone" and "stabilizer" of the long -term contract for electric coal on energy security.Compared with 2022, this year’s medium and long -term contract mechanism is relatively mature, and the implementation of practice is better. Therefore, the introduction of the plan in 2024 meets expectations and is basically the same as the 2023 plan.First, the medium and long -term contract price mechanism has not been changed. The benchmark price continues 675 yuan/tonPune Stock. The reasonable price range of the water coal has not changed, which is conducive to stabilizing the production enthusiasm of the production of coal enterprises.The second is that the contracting objects of medium and long -term contracts continue to cover all coal production enterprises; we believe that the import of coal in the increase in incremental increase has been greater in 2023. Considering the uncertainty of imports, it is necessary to continue to emphasize the contribution of coal companies to the long -term association.Other aspects such as capacity guarantee, schedule and performance supervision are also basically the same as the 2023 plan.
There are two main changes: first, the number of contracts for power generation companies; the other is that the monthly decomposition performance requirements are relaxed.The signing of power generation companies is calculated based on the domestic coal consumption in 2023. The contract signing volume is between 80%-100%of the demandKolkata Investment. Compared with the 2023 plan, there is no encouragement to sign a contract according to the incremental demand.However, the growth rate of thermal power generation in January to September 2023 was 6.19%. With the increase in my country’s electrification level and the economic recovery, it is expected that the domestic coal consumption of power generation companies in 2024 still has room for growth. Large benefits space, it is expected that power generation companies tend to sign a full signing.Compared with the 2023 plan, the monthly decomposition has relaxed the requirements of the monthly and quarterly performance rates.In the 2023 plan, the performance of the off -season performance is the same as the peak season performance requirementsBangalore Wealth Management. It may push up the inventory of downstream power companies in the off -season and reduce the inventory during the peak season. We think this is also one of the reasons why the current power company’s inventory is high. The revision of the plan helpsFlating downstream enterprise inventory fluctuations, stabilizing coal prices.The changes and reviews compared with the 2023 plan are shown in Table 1.
Comments and investment recommendations:
2024 The annual plan for the signing of the long -term contract signed by the electric coal for the long -term contract continued the final implementation plan in 2022. It remained stable in the identification of reasonable price interval, the pricing mechanism, the benchmark price, and the coal index of the floating price.Coal enterprises have guaranteed confession and increased the flexibility of performance.Because the benchmark price and reasonable price range of the contract still have a large profit space for coal enterprises, which is conducive to improving the enthusiasm of coal companies to increase production and confession, companies with higher coal coal in Changxie can continue to lock in earnings in advance.Considering that there is still a large price difference between the current long -term cooperative price and market price, it is expected that the number of contract execution in the medium and long -term contract will remain high.We believe that the price of coal prices in the fourth quarter still has a basis for rising, and the value of high dividends in low interest rate environments increases.Before the summer, the price of the loss was rapidly increasing, and the bottom of the round was confirmed after the pressure testJaipur Wealth Management. The actual bottom was significantly higher than the market expectations, so the margin of coal safety increased again.Looking back, the domestic demand expectations in the fourth quarter improved, and the supply or recovery but the elasticity was still low.Recently, Pakistani conflicts disturbing the global energy market, and the prices of oil and natural gas fluctuate greatly.The global energy crisis has not been lifted. Considering factors such as the peak season in Europe and the improvement of India’s demand in the fourth quarter, overseas coal prices are still strongly supported.At the same time, the domestic interest rate environment is expected to maintain loose for a long time, and it is expected that the attractiveness of high dividends assets will continue to increase in the future.It is recommended to pay attention to several categories of targets. First, overseas prices have risen [Yan Mining Energy] the most benefit.Second, [Guanghui Energy] The Malang Mine Development and Reform Commission has been approved, and the release of production capacity has continued to advance. As the price of production is rising, the company is expected to benefit and prices.Third, coking coal stocks with coke production capacity have high elasticity. Elasticity such as [潞 第 第], [Ping Coal Co., Ltd.], and [Huaibei Mining] are worthy of attention.Fourth, high division suggests to pay attention to [India Shenhua], [Shan Coal International], [Shaanxi Coal Industry], [Hengyuan Coal Power].
The execution of the long -term contract is exceeded expected, the proportion of the long -term contract coverage increases, the benchmark price is reduced, and the floating price is lowered.The supply release exceeds expectations; the demand side is not as good as expected; the EU coal gap is not as good as expected, and imported coal poured into the domestic market; strong price control; failure of coal companies, failure, etc.
Udabur Investment
