It has soared hundreds of times in 30 years, and the Indian stock market is not a miracle.

The Indian stock market has risen for eight consecutive years. As of December 6, the total market value of the stock market exceeded the $ 4 trillion mark.Since 1991, the Index’s stock index has risen 66 times, which has caused heated market debate.At present, the total market value of the Indian stock market is second only to the United States, India and Japan.

First of all, India’s economy has grown strongly, and the continuous increase in per capita income is one of the key reasons for the rise in the Indian stock market.At present, among major global economies, Indian stocks have the highest valuation in the world, not only nearly double the average level of emerging countries and regions, but also three times that of India.

Benefiting from factors such as India’s huge capital expenditure, domestic consumption active and population dividend, India’s GDP growth rate has ranked among the top world in recent years.In 2021, India’s GDP exceeded the United Kingdom, ranking fifth in the world.In 2022, India’s actual GDP growth rate was 7.2%.

In the third quarter of 2023, India’s GDP growth rate was as high as 7.6%, exceeding the predictions of institutions such as Indian Reserve (Central Bank).

Among them, India’s finance, real estate, and service industries have a growth rate of 6%, and the growth rates of manufacturing and buildings are as high as 13.9%and 13.3%, respectively.Among the world’s major economies, it tops the list.

However, economic growth is only one of the reasons for the rise of the Indian stock market. India’s radicals printing banknotes have played a vital role in domestic and foreign funds.Hong Yan, chief economist of Sirui Group, said that for the increase in the Indian stock market, the sharp rise in the supply of currency supply in India should not be ignored.The Indian stock index rose 66 times.Therefore, at least half of the Indian stock indexes come from currency depreciation and inflation.Jaipur Stock

India’s large number of banknote printing has caused India’s currency to depreciate sharply. From 2012, the Indian rupee has depreciated nearly 40%, and the US dollar rose from 47.83 in 2012 to 83.36 in 2012.At the same time, India’s inflation has soared. In 2023, India’s inflation rate has soared to 7%, exceeding the 6%tolerance limit of the Central Bank of India.In order to restrain domestic prices, the Modi government has continuously tightened the grain export policy.

Overseas funds are also inflowing into the Indian stock market in large quantities. Just in 2023, the net inflow of overseas funds has exceeded $ 14 billion in net inflows.

On the other hand, since 1990, whether it is GDP growth rate or total GDP, India is far less than India.Compared with 1990, GDP, which is priced in the US dollar, has increased by about 9 times, the United States has increased by more than 3 times, and India has increased by about 47 times.

In 1990, India and India’s GDP were basically at the same level. The GDPs of China and India were US $ 360.9 billion and US $ 321 billion. In 2022, China and India’s GDPs were US $ 17.56 trillion and US $ 3.39 trillion. India was India India.More than 5 times.

It can be seen that the increase in the rise of the Indian stock market is not because India’s economy is better than India, but because India’s economy is better than India, but because of the factors such as India’s big money printing, funds speculation, and investment preferences for investors in the two countries.For example, since 2000, Indian investors have preferred real estate capital due to the myth of wealth creation in real estate.

The large speculation of domestic and foreign funds has pushed up the valuation of the Indian stock index and Indian stocks. According to the statistical data of Citi, the P / E ratio after the periodic adjustment shows that in the stock market of major economies in the world, The world’s most expensive.India’s stock valuation is the highest in the world, not only three times that of India, but also nearly double the average level of emerging countries and regions.Varanasi Investment

Among the stock markets of major global economies, India and the United States have the highest valuations

Compared with India, which is also a BRICS country, in the past ten years, the valuation of the overall stock market in India and India has a very high correlation.However, since 2020, the valuation of the Indian stock market has soared, and the valuation of A shares has continued to decline.The current valuation of the Indian stock market turned out to be three times that of the Indian stock market.It was from 2019 that the United States launched a trade war in India. Western media collectively sang the Indian economy, and overseas funds have gradually flowed out of the Hong Kong stocks and A -share markets.

Except for India, many of the countries with the largest increase in stocks in the past 10 years are all countries with crazy money printing.For example, the first place in Argentina rose 160 times that of the 10 -year stock index, but due to a large number of banknote printing, the currency supply surged, the currency depreciated by more than 80 times, and the economic collapse was collapsed.

The rise in stock markets in the United States and Japan is inseparable from the supply of currencies.During the epidemic, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government nearly 8 trillion US dollars of radical economic stimulus measures have promoted the rise in financial asset prices such as US stock markets and real estate.At present, the value of financial assets in the US private sector has exceeded 6.3 times that of US GDP, which is much higher than any period in history.

In Japan, in addition to a large number of banknote printing in Japan, the Bank of Japan has began to achieve the goal of stimulating the economy by purchasing ETFs in 2010. As of March 2023, the Bank of Japan has disclosed that the total market value of the current positioning ETF is as high as 53 trillion days.Yuan is equivalent to RMB 2.58 trillion, which greatly exceeds the total market value of all A shares.

Since 2012, the Japanese stock index has doubled more than doubled, but due to the surge in currency supply, Japan has become the country with the worst debt in the world, and the yen depreciates nearly doubled. Japan’s GDP, which is denominated in the US dollar, has been significantly under the US dollar.亿 $ 423 trillion.The German stock indexes have also risen by 80%in 10 years, but the weak economic growth in Germany may be the only country with a negative economic growth among major economies in the world in 2023.Surat Stock

Therefore, for India, the United States, Japan, and Argentina, the rise in the stock market is more driven factors from the increase in currency supply and the hype of funds.

Since 2008, the Fed has taken the lead and frequently intervened in the financial market. The stock market has not been a economic barometer for a long time, but is based on the expectations of central bank monetary policy.

The overseas stock market has rely on the central bank’s banknote to rely on addiction. Taking the United States as an example, bad news in the US economy is good news for the stock market …If the data is not good, the Fed will take a shot.

Agra Stock